Why Withdrawn and Expired Listings Are Rising in Austin MLS: September 2024 Analysis
Published | Posted by Dan Price
Withdrawn and Expired Listings in Austin MLS: A Look into September 2024
September 06, 2024 : The Austin real estate market has seen significant changes in both withdrawn and expired listings as we head into the latter part of 2024. These two categories of property listings—withdrawn and expired—reflect distinct scenarios in which homes are removed from the market, either by the seller's choice or through an expired contract. The numbers for August 2024 are based on actual data, while the projections for September 2024 are derived from a proven analytics model, offering insight into current market trends and what to expect in the coming months.
Withdrawn Listings : Withdrawn listings occur when a seller chooses to remove their property from the market before the listing agreement expires. The most recent data indicates a noticeable rise in these types of listings in 2024. For September 2024, the number of withdrawn listings is projected to reach 1,472, a sharp increase from 974 in September 2023. This significant 51.1% year-over-year increase highlights a trend that has been building over the past several months. In August 2024, there were 1,236 withdrawn listings, compared to 1,025 in August 2023, representing a 20.6% increase.
The historical context further amplifies the growth in withdrawn listings. In September 2014, for example, there were 584 withdrawn listings. By September 2024, that number is projected to more than double, indicating a larger volume of properties being taken off the market. This growth trend has been particularly pronounced since 2020, where economic factors, changes in interest rates, and fluctuating buyer demand have influenced sellers' decisions to pause their listings. The rise in withdrawn listings can also be attributed to many sellers opting to relist their properties during the traditionally stronger “selling season” between February and April, expecting better outcomes during this time.
Expired Listings : Expired listings, on the other hand, represent properties where the listing agreement has reached its expiration date without a sale being completed. The data shows a similar upward trend in expired listings for 2024. September 2024 is projected to see 754 expired listings, up from 508 in September 2023, marking a 48.4% increase. As with withdrawn listings, the rise in expired listings has been steady throughout the year. In August 2024, there were 721 expired listings, up from 475 in August 2023, reflecting a 51.8% year-over-year jump.
Looking back at historical data, expired listings in September 2014 stood at 294. Over the past decade, expired listings have steadily increased, with significant spikes occurring in recent years. The rise in expired listings could indicate that some properties are being listed at prices that are too high for the current market, or that buyers are becoming more cautious in their purchasing decisions. As with withdrawn listings, many of these expired listings may reappear in early 2025 as sellers aim to relist during the more favorable months of February through May.
Anticipating Market Shifts in 2025 : Given the trends seen in withdrawn and expired listings, the Austin real estate market is likely to see an increase in available properties during the early months of 2025. Many sellers who have withdrawn their properties from the market in 2024 plan to relist them during the “selling season” of February through April, when demand tends to be higher. As a result, we can expect a notable uptick in the number of active listings between February and May 2025, as these sellers aim to capitalize on more favorable market conditions.
In conclusion, both withdrawn and expired listings have seen significant increases throughout 2024, reflecting the evolving dynamics of the Austin real estate market. Sellers are adjusting their strategies, either by withdrawing their homes to relist later or letting their listings expire in the hopes of achieving better results in the coming months. As we approach 2025, it will be crucial to monitor these trends and anticipate shifts in the market that may offer new opportunities for both buyers and sellers.
