Austin Real Estate Market Update

Austin Real Estate Market Update – February 26, 2026

According to the Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing for Thursday, February 26, 2026, active residential listings are now at 13,469. That is a 12.1 percent increase compared to this time last year when inventory stood at 12,017. While that is still below the previous cycle high of 18,146 reached on June 30, 2025, it represents a clear shift from the ultra tight conditions of 2021 and early 2022.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for Thursday, February 26, 2026.

Nearly half of all active listings, 48.7 percent, have had at least one price drop. That is not a minor statistic. When almost one out of every two homes has reduced its price, that signals seller resistance meeting buyer hesitation. It also reinforces the broader tone of today’s Austin real estate market. Sellers are adjusting to reality. Buyers are negotiating.

Of the 13,469 active listings, 3,995 are new construction and 9,474 are resale. Builders continue to play a major role in shaping the Austin housing landscape. New construction carries an Activity Index of 29.02 percent, while resale sits at 21.31 percent. That spread matters. Builders are still moving product faster than the resale market, largely because of incentives, rate buydowns, and price flexibility.

Cumulative new listings from January through February total 7,161. That is down 8.5 percent year over year, yet still 16.3 percent above the long term average. In other words, fewer sellers are coming to market compared to last year, but the supply pipeline remains elevated relative to historical norms. On the demand side, cumulative pending listings sit at 6,064. That is down 8.0 percent year over year and only 0.5 percent above average. Demand has not collapsed, but it is not accelerating either.

The imbalance becomes clearer when we look at the new listing to pending ratio. The monthly ratio is currently 0.70. The year to date ratio is 0.72, compared to a 25 year average of 0.82. When this ratio falls below average, it means listings are outpacing contracts. Year to date, there are 1,097 more new listings than pendings. That gap represents inventory that must either be absorbed or repriced.

The Activity Index is another critical metric in today’s Austin market update. It currently stands at 23.8 percent, down from 25.5 percent last year, a 6.7 percent decline. In the resale segment specifically, many cities fall into the Softening phase between 20 and 25 percent. Others sit in Contraction between 15 and 20 percent. Very few areas are in Expansion above 30 percent. This confirms what many agents are feeling on the ground. The market is not frozen, but it is selective and slower.

Months of inventory now sits at 4.77, up 13.7 percent from 4.20 one year ago. For resale only, much of the region is in what would be considered Buyer Advantage or even Buyer Control territory. Historically, anything above six months of inventory places downward pressure on prices. While the Austin area overall is just under five months, several submarkets are well above that threshold.

Sales volume supports this softer narrative. There were 1,858 homes sold in February. Year to date cumulative sold properties total 3,543, which is down 8.6 percent year over year, though still 6.7 percent above the long term average. When adjusted for population, cumulative sold per 100,000 residents is 133. That is 10.5 percent below last year and 23.8 percent below the long term average. On a per Realtor basis, cumulative sold per 1,000 Realtors is 201, down 2.5 percent year over year and 21.1 percent below average. There is more competition chasing fewer transactions.

Now let’s talk pricing, because this is where the Austin real estate forecast becomes more nuanced.

The average sold price in February is $554,439. The median sold price is $425,000. From the May 2022 peak of $550,000 median, today’s $425,000 represents a 22.73 percent decline, or roughly $125,000 in lost median value. The average price has dropped 18.70 percent from its peak of $681,939.

When we track the median sold price against 36 months prior, we are currently at negative 2.30 percent. That means prices are slightly lower than they were three years ago. This confirms that the market has given back much of its pandemic acceleration.

There is also a widening gap between high and low price tiers. The bottom 25th percentile saw prices decline 3.08 percent year over year and price per square foot fall 5.92 percent. The top 25th percentile saw price increase 4.58 percent, while price per square foot dipped just 0.57 percent. Higher end homes are holding up better on nominal price, while entry level inventory is feeling more pressure. That aligns with affordability constraints.

The Absorption Rate, defined as sold divided by active listings, sits at 12.64 percent. The historical average is 31.47 percent. That is a significant gap. When absorption falls below 15 percent, it signals buyer leverage and slower turnover. The Market Flow Score, which combines multiple turnover metrics into a normalized 0 to 10 scale, is currently 2.07 compared to a historical average of 6.56. This is a supply heavy, low velocity market.

From a forward looking standpoint, the long term compound appreciation rate for Austin over 25 years is 4.554 percent annually. If we assume the current median of $425,000 represents a cyclical bottom and the market resumes that historical appreciation rate, it would take approximately 71 months, or until December 2031, to return to the prior peak near $550,631. That is the math behind the Austin housing forecast. Recovery is a process, not an event.

The Home Value Index indicates that 22 cities, or 73.3 percent, remain overvalued relative to fundamentals. Seven cities are fairly valued, and two are undervalued. This suggests further price normalization may still be required in certain submarkets before equilibrium is restored.

For buyers, this environment presents opportunity. With nearly half of listings having price reductions and months of inventory approaching five, negotiation leverage is real. For sellers, precision pricing is critical. Overpricing in a 4.77 month inventory market is costly. For investors, patience and selectivity matter. Not all submarkets are equal, and data driven acquisition strategy is essential.

This Austin real estate update reinforces a simple truth. The market is not crashing, but it is correcting. Inventory is elevated, absorption is below average, and price momentum has cooled significantly from peak levels. The Austin housing narrative has shifted from scarcity to balance, and in some pockets, to buyer control.

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FAQ Section

Is the Austin housing market crashing in 2026?

The data does not support the idea of a crash, but it clearly shows a correction. Median prices are down 22.73 percent from the May 2022 peak, and inventory has risen 12.1 percent year over year. The Activity Index at 23.8 percent places much of the resale market in a softening phase. This is a normalization cycle where supply and affordability are reshaping pricing, not a collapse in demand.

How much inventory does Austin have right now?

Austin currently has 13,469 active residential listings, with 4.77 months of inventory. That is up from 4.20 months one year ago. Nearly 49 percent of listings have had at least one price drop, which confirms that supply is pressuring sellers. In practical terms, buyers have more options and more negotiating leverage than they did in 2021 or early 2022.

Are Austin home prices still falling?

The median sold price is $425,000, down 22.73 percent from the May 2022 peak. Year over year, lower price tiers are still declining, while higher price tiers have shown modest gains. When compared to 36 months ago, median pricing is slightly negative. That suggests the correction phase is advanced but not necessarily complete in every segment.

Is now a good time to buy in Austin?

From a data perspective, buyers have improved leverage. The Absorption Rate is just 12.64 percent compared to a historical average above 30 percent. The Market Flow Score is 2.07 versus a long term average of 6.56. Those numbers indicate slower turnover and more negotiating power for buyers. Long term, Austin’s 25 year compound appreciation rate of 4.554 percent suggests patient buyers who purchase strategically may benefit over time.

When will Austin home prices recover to peak levels?

If we assume the current median price of $425,000 represents the bottom of this cycle and the market returns to its historical 4.554 percent compound annual appreciation rate, it would take roughly 71 months to reach prior peak levels. That projects recovery around December 2031. The Austin real estate forecast therefore points to gradual appreciation rather than rapid rebound. Timing will depend on interest rates, job growth, and supply dynamics.

Have a Question or Want to Dive Deeper?

If you’d like a custom breakdown of the data, want help interpreting today’s market trends, or just have a question about buying or selling in Austin, let us know. Fill out the form below and a member of our team will get back to you promptly.