Today’s Austin real estate market update for Friday, February 27, 2026 shows a market that continues to adjust after the historic peak of 2022. Active residential listings are now at 13,605, up 10.8 percent compared to this time last year, as shown on page 1 and detailed in the inventory charts on page 3 of the Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing. While that is well below the prior high of 18,146 reached in June 2025, supply remains meaningfully elevated compared to the tight conditions that defined the pandemic era.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for February 27, 2026.
Nearly half of all active listings, 48.3 percent, have experienced at least one price drop. That is not a small number. When almost one out of every two homes on the market has reduced price, it tells us sellers are competing hard for attention. Buyers today have leverage, and they are using it. This is not the environment of 2021, where homes routinely escalated above list price within days. This is a more selective, data driven market.
Breaking down inventory further, 3,988 of the active listings are new construction and 9,617 are resale properties. Builders continue to represent a significant share of supply. Their Activity Index is 29.10 percent, compared to 21.26 percent for resale. That gap matters. It shows that builders are still moving product at a faster pace relative to their available inventory, often supported by incentives and rate buy downs.
Pending listings are at 4,233, up 4.0 percent year over year. That increase in pendings is a positive sign for demand. However, cumulative pending listings from January through February total 6,217, which is down 5.7 percent year over year but still 3.0 percent above the long term average. Demand is not collapsing, but it is clearly more restrained than it was during the peak years.
The Activity Index, which measures pending listings relative to active plus pending, currently stands at 23.7 percent, down from 24.9 percent last year. This places much of the resale market in the softening phase, defined as 20 to 25 percent. In this phase, inventory rises and sales slow. Prices typically face pressure. Some submarkets have slipped into contraction territory between 15 and 20 percent, and a few are even in the crisis zone under 15 percent. That distribution reinforces the idea that Austin housing is no longer a uniform market. It is highly localized and highly price sensitive.
Another important demand indicator is the New Listing to Pending Ratio. On a monthly basis, it is currently 0.69. For the year, the ratio is 0.72 compared to a 25 year average of 0.82. When the ratio is below average, it means more homes are coming to market relative to the number going under contract. That builds inventory and puts downward pressure on pricing. Year to date, new listings exceed pending listings by 1,205 homes. That surplus is a structural headwind for sellers.
Months of Inventory has risen to 4.82 months, up 12.2 percent compared to last year’s 4.30 months. Historically, Austin has been strongest when inventory sits closer to 2 to 3 months. At nearly 5 months, we are approaching balanced to buyer advantage conditions. The resale breakdown shows many areas in the neutral to buyer advantage range, and some submarkets above 7 or even 10 months of supply. When inventory exceeds 6 to 7 months, prices typically soften unless demand accelerates meaningfully.
Sales data confirms the cooling environment. February recorded 1,826 sold properties. Cumulative sold properties from January through February total 3,511, down 9.4 percent year over year, though still 5.8 percent above the long term average. Sales per 100,000 population are at 132, which is 11.3 percent lower year over year and nearly 25 percent below average. Sales per 1,000 Realtors are also down. That means competition among agents remains elevated relative to transaction volume.
Price trends continue to normalize. The average sold price for February is 558,934 dollars. The median sold price is 424,990 dollars. From the May 2022 median peak of 550,000 dollars, the market is down 22.73 percent, or roughly 125,000 dollars. The average price is down about 18 percent from its peak. These are not small adjustments. They represent a full repricing cycle driven by higher mortgage rates, affordability constraints, and expanded inventory.
When we compare today’s median price to 36 months prior, it is down 2.30 percent. That is a notable shift. For many years, Austin real estate experienced strong multi year appreciation. Now, three year comparisons are flattening or slightly negative. This reflects the post peak correction phase.
The projection model based on the 25 year compound appreciation rate of 4.554 percent estimates that if the median of 424,990 dollars represents the cycle bottom, it would take approximately 71 months to return to the prior peak of about 550,615 dollars. That projects a return to peak value around December 2031. This type of projection is not a guarantee, but it frames expectations. Recoveries take time.
Price trends across segments are also telling. The bottom 25th percentile of homes saw prices decline 3.12 percent year over year, with price per square foot down 5.82 percent. In contrast, the top 25th percentile saw prices increase 6.67 percent year over year, while price per square foot was nearly flat. This suggests that higher end properties have shown more resilience in nominal price, even as affordability pressures weigh on entry level segments.
City level appreciation data shows that only 6 cities are up year over year, while 24 are down. The Home Value Index classifies 73.3 percent of cities as overvalued, 23.3 percent as fairly valued, and 6.7 percent as undervalued. That distribution aligns with a market still working through excess pricing from the prior boom.
The Absorption Rate, defined as sold listings divided by active listings, is currently 13.34 percent compared to a historical average of 31.47 percent. This is a major gap. An absorption rate above 30 percent typically signals a strong seller market. At 13 percent, Austin is firmly in buyer favor conditions. The Market Flow Score, which blends multiple turnover metrics, is 2.31 on a 0 to 10 scale, compared to a historical average of 6.56. That low score reflects slower inventory turnover and reduced momentum.
So what does this mean for buyers, sellers, investors, and agents?
For buyers, this is a more strategic window than we have seen in years. Inventory is elevated, nearly half of listings have reduced price, and absorption is low. Negotiation is normal again. Patience and proper analysis matter. For sellers, pricing discipline is critical. Overpricing will almost certainly lead to price reductions and extended days on market. Homes that are positioned correctly are still selling, but the market is unforgiving to unrealistic expectations.
For investors, this Austin housing forecast suggests caution but also opportunity. With prices down more than 20 percent from peak and inventory higher, selective acquisitions may make sense for those with long term horizons. However, short term appreciation is unlikely to be strong while months of inventory remains near 5 and the Activity Index stays below 25 percent.
For agents, data fluency is essential. The Austin real estate forecast is no longer about rapid appreciation. It is about absorption, supply, and affordability. Clients want clarity, not hype. The numbers today point to a market in transition, not collapse. Austin housing continues to normalize after an extraordinary cycle.
This Austin real estate update reinforces a simple truth. Markets move in cycles. We are in the recalibration phase. Inventory is higher, prices are below peak, and demand is steady but cautious. The long term fundamentals of Austin remain strong, but the near term environment requires realistic expectations and disciplined strategy.
