Inventory Is Rising, Demand Is Lagging

This week’s data confirms a continuing trend: inventory is rising, while demand remains soft. We’re seeing a tangible uptick in active listings, with the New Listing to Pending Ratio settling at 0.60, one of the lowest March readings since 2004. This places the market firmly in the neutral-to-buyer territory. The six-county area now reports 11,928 active listings, up 11.1% year-over-year, and a record high for March. Even adjusted for population, we’re still 2.4% above average—a noteworthy metric, though not alarming.

Open Houses Surge, but Sales Lag

We recorded 3,048 open houses this past week, signaling strong agent activity. However, this hasn't fully translated into offers. Buyer hesitancy is real. The average decision-making time has lengthened—clients are taking more time to tour, compare, and decide. While showings are up, contracts aren’t following at the same pace.

Market Indicators Point Toward a Shift

The New Listing to Pending Ratio came in at 0.60, down from 0.75 in February and significantly lower than 0.76 in March 2024. This key indicator points to increased supply relative to demand—a leading signal for upcoming pricing pressure. Supporting this, we’re seeing a 21% year-over-year drop in pending sales, along with a 13.19% month-over-month inventory jump. That’s a serious shift in market balance.

Percentile Analysis Reveals a Bifurcated Market

The percentile analysis for the city of Austin shows lower-priced homes are facing strong headwinds, while higher-end homes are holding or appreciating. The bottom 35th percentile is experiencing price drops of 4.7% to 5.2%, while the 75th and 90th percentiles are up by over 6%. In ZIP code 78747, for example, the 90th percentile is up 7.8%, while the 25th percentile is down nearly 9%. This confirms the bifurcated market narrative we’ve been tracking—affordability is driving demand variance.

City and ZIP Code Activity Index Highlights

Austin: Down from 24.5% to 22%

Leander (78641): Record low 23%

San Marcos: Record high activity index

Lago Vista: Up from 9.5% to 16.1%

Elgin: 12-month record high

Inventory Velocity & Health Indicators

Months of Inventory (MLS-wide): Up to 5.4 months (from 4.2 last year)

Activity Index (6-county area): 24.2%

New Construction: 27.3% of inventory, yet 41.7% of pending's

This disparity shows where the demand is gravitating. We also looked at forward-leading indicators like the Market Health Score (now 16%) and Demand Momentum, both suggesting a slowing market trajectory.

Final Takeaway : The data never lies—and this week, it tells us that the market is in transition. As demand lags behind a rising inventory, especially in the more affordable price bands, we’re seeing early signs of pricing pressure. Buyers have options, and they’re taking their time. As fiduciaries, we must respond with patience, insight, and deep knowledge of local conditions.

Daily Market Summary

13,697 (+20.4% YoY) : Active Residential Listings

0.59 Ratio : New Listing to Pending Ratio

97.30% : Sold Price to List Price Ratio

6.625% :  30-Year Weekly Mortgage Rate

4.321% : 10-Year Bond Yield

Timestamps 

0:12 - New Listing to Pending Ratio Update

1:53 - Open Houses Top 3,000 This Week

3:09 - Weekly New Listings and Price Drops

6:35 - Pending Transactions and Market Ratio

7:29 - Inventory Surge: Buyer Market Trajectory

8:02 - Year-over-Year Comparison: Inventory vs Demand

13:08 - March Monthly Stats Update

20:11 - Historic Ratio Trends Since 2000

22:49 - Demand Lagging: 21% Year-over-Year Drop

26:04 - Buyer Behavior & Sales Cycle Observations

34:44 - Percentile Analysis Breakdown

38:04 - Austin ZIP Code Deep Dive: 78747

40:03 - City-Level Activity Index Changes

43:45 - Price per Foot: Pending vs Sold Indicator

53:15 - Sold-to-List Price Ratio Historical Comparison

56:13 - Pending-to-Supply Index: Price Pressure Indicator

1:01:38 - Final Market Health Score Summary

1:04:01 - Economic Calendar Preview for This Week

The data never lies—and this week, it tells us that the market is in transition. As demand lags behind a rising inventory, especially in the more affordable price bands, we’re seeing early signs of pricing pressure. Buyers have options, and they’re taking their time. As fiduciaries, we must respond with patience, insight, and deep knowledge of local conditions.